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But it’s just as important, if not more so, to anticipate the most likely deviations that could occur from your forecast and develop backup scenarios that focus on flexibility, both on your end and from your prominent partners, vendors and carriers. It’s essential to map out a main course of action by taking all the latest information at your disposal into account. That’s an important lesson to remember when you’re forecasting. However, they spend 75% of their time planning for all the various contingencies of what could possibly go wrong with the principal plan. As an example, Choate noted that to succeed at a mission, SEAL teams spend 25% of their time planning the mission.
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Choate said that incorrect assumptions lie at the root of every failure.
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One segment of his presentation struck me particularly hard. Navy SEAL John Choate recently spoke at Fishbowl’s inaugural Inventory Management + Growth Summit. It’s certainly ideal to expect the unexpected when you’re attempting to forecast for the coming year and beyond. It’s as true today as the day the quote was penned. The first half of the phrase “to expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect,” credited to Oscar Wilde, has stood the test of time. Fuscaldo explains that this tends to work better in the short term, so it may be the better approach for forecasting one year ahead. Quantitative forecasting, however, is the preferred approach for comparing current business production against past performance. This is also a popular technique for forecasting far down the road. There are two prevalent but distinctive approaches to forecasting: qualitative and quantitative.Īs Donna Fuscaldo explains in Business News Daily, new businesses that don’t have their own proven track record to evaluate often use qualitative forecasting. ‘You can observe a lot by just watching.’ A certain level of expertise in a subject or field, however, is typically necessary for making a valid forecast.įorecasting is important in any business, as it helps leaders make informed decisions based on past and present sales data and develop more successful strategies by balancing those forecasts with current trends in their respective marketplace. Anyone can make a prediction, which doesn’t require any special insight, knowledge or background. In layman’s terms, all forecasts are predictions - but not all predictions are forecasts. On the other hand, a prediction is an actual act of indicating that something will happen in the future with or without prior information.” ‘When you come to a fork in the road, take it.’įor starters, there’s a difference between the act of making a prediction and the art of forecasting, especially in a business sense.ĭ explains the distinction between the two like this: “A forecast refers to a calculation or an estimation which uses data from previous events, combined with recent trends, to come up with a future event outcome. (Enjoy the section headers based on alleged Yogi-isms, some of which are misattributed.) But let’s examine the topic a little more closely. Yes, Yogi (or whoever originally said it) scored yet again with that one. “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” Not surprisingly, there’s a great quote often attributed to Berra that lends itself to discussions of the act of attempting to anticipate eventual outcomes:
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#Fishbowl inventory reports software#
“Why buy good luggage? You only use it when you travel.”Īs vice president of marketing at Fishbowl, forecasting potential trends and their effect on the supply and demand of our software is a key part of my job.